Daniel Chapo will be sworn in on Wednesday as Mozambique’s 5th President of the Republic.However, the ceremony will likely be marked by the absence of regional and global heads of state.
The presidents of Kenya, Malawi, and Tanzania are sending their deputies, while Eswatini and Rwanda will be represented by their respective prime ministers.
Angola and Zimbabwe are sending their Territory Administration minister, deputy president, and Defence minister, respectively.
The European Union countries will be represented by their respective ambassadors.
The president of former colonial master Portugal is sending his Foreign Affairs minister, Paulo Rangel.
Culture Minister Edelvina Materula informed the press that South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Embaló had confirmed their attendance. However, on Monday, the South African online publication Eye Witness reported that International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola would instead represent South Africa.
Chapo was declared the country’s president by the Constitutional Council, following an election that saw widespread violence, after the opposition accused the authorities of rigging the poll – the violence resulted in over 300 deaths, close to 700 injuries, loss of revenue owing to the closure of borders, destruction of public and private property and looting.
Comment
Since the first democratic elections in 1994, Portugal has always sent its president to the swearing-in of Mozambican presidents. However, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa had initially confirmed he would be present at Chapo’s swearing-in ceremony, but was forced to instead send his foreign affairs minister after members of parliament recommended the government not to recognize the results of the 9 October elections “due to the serious irregularities and fraud reported and documented.”
A member of the European Union, the Portuguese government must play by its democratic rules, and its recommendation could be interpreted as disapproval over how the election was conducted.
Furthermore, right-wing parties who have openly expressed solidarity with the Mozambican opposition, particularly with then independent candidate Venâncio Mondlane and PODEMOS (Optimistic Party for the Development of Mozambique), the party that backed Mondlane’s independent candidature.
As for the European Union bloc, it has yet to recognise Chapo and Frelimo’s win. The sending of ambassadors could suggest that it does not recognise the legitimacy of Chapo’s mandate. However, owing to Mozambique’s geopolitical importance in the energy sector and in the fight against terrorism, the snub will not lead to diplomatic isolation, which Frelimo would consider the lesser of two evils.
For South Africa, things may not be that clear. During Nyusi’s two terms of office, relations between Maputo and Pretoria were Frost at best, especially because outgoing President Filipe Nyusi dealt with the issue of terrorism to the point of bringing Rwanda into Mozambique. This caused an already existing rift between Mozambique and South Africa, given the strained relations between Pretoria and Kigali.
With a new president in Mozambique, perhaps it would be a great opportunity for South Africa to attempt to mend the historic relations between the two countries – during campaigning, Chapo was received by Ramaphosa in South Africa, suggesting that the two are likely to move beyond the current rift.
However, Ramaphosa could be wary of the optics since the Mozambican political crisis following the elections has yet to be resolved – South Africa’s businesses have been particularly hit by unrest in Mozambique, with the movement of goods stopped at the Ressano Garcia post, which is the main land border between the two countries.
Furthermore, Ramaphosa might not want to seem to be taking sides, especially because South Africa has expressed its willingness to help Mozambique resolve its post-election conflict. He recently sent his security adviser Sydney Mufamadi to Maputo as a special envoy to help quell the political unrest.
Regardless of the calculations, Chapo is the first Mozambican president since the 1994 democratic elections whose investiture will not be graced by heads of state, apart from Emboló of Guinea Bissau, whose legitimacy is also questioned back home.
The absence of the heads of state seems to be emboldening Mondlane and his supporters who see this as proof of Chapo’s ilegitimacy, which is likely to create hurdles in the latter’s bid to consolidate power in the country.
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