Mozambique’s Frelimo ruling party is expected to meet on Thursday to produce its short-list of candidates who will vye internally for the position of party presidential nominee for the October 2024 general elections.
At issue is the succession of current Mozambican and Frelimo president, Filipe Nyusi, who is expected to step down in January 2025, barring any surprises.
Last week, Frelimo’s Political Commission called off its meeting that would have analysed the proposed list, and whittle it down to a few names that would then start campaigning for the much-coveted party presidential nominee.
The eventual winner of the internal elections will be chosen by the party’s Central Committee in its March 2024 meeting.
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Meanwhile, would-be presidential candidates have been campaigning hard within and without the Political Commission to ensure that they garner enough votes to be short-listed – last time Frelimo drew a short-list was in the battle for the succession of former President Armando Guebuza. Then, initially the party had proposed three names, but two others were eventually added.
Observers are also interested in knowing who President Nyusi’s choice to succeed him will be. Although Nyusi amassed lots of power in the last three years, it might become hard for him to anoint a successor as he faces strong opposition from the party’s elders and other internal circles whom are tired of his ruling incapacity and fear of continuity.
Mozambique Insights has learnt that Nyusi’s list comprises four names, three of whom are members of the Political Commission, namely Aires Aly, a former Prime Minister and Education Minister, and frontrunner Celso Correia, the current Minister of Agriculture. The only non-member of the Political Commission is José Pacheco, a former Agricultural and Interior Minister.
For good measure, Nyusi seems to have thrown in the name of Esperança Bias, the current Chairperson of the Assembly of the Republic, the country’s parliament.
For many years it has been said that Correia was Nyusi’s preferred successor as he would be able to protect him from prosecution after leaving office. A political analyst said that if Nyusi bets on Correia, it might be his doom as the latter is wont to double cross him as he did to Guebuza in order to amass more power, he is likely to do the same in order to close the “hidden debts” scandal – as he is said to be only loyal to himself, his calculus would be that handing Nyusi’s head in a silver platter to the Guebuza faction, might do him in good stead.
However, although Correia might seem to have an advantage over others, hardly anybody wants him to lead the country. Frelimo Insiders told Mozambique Insights that the elders will do anything to thwart his candidacy.
Should Bias’ name be confirmed, it would mean that Frelimo’s Secretary-General, Roque Silva, would have managed to push for his own candidate. They belong to the same ethnic group, who during Nyusi’s tenures in office have discreetly seen their power rise.
Pacheco and Aly are remnants of the last succession campaign and were soundly pipped by Nyusi in the presidential nominee battle. Pacheco is a candidate feared by many in business circles in the party for his outspoken manner and pragmatism. Many think he is the right candidate for the job for the same reasons, and that he has the capacity to resolve the confusion and deep crisis that is plaguing the party.
However, Frelimo has been known to change candidates at the last second when demanded by the party’s elders. Nyusi might think he has his list only for the Elders to step in and impose a new list.
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