Mozambique’s ruling Frelimo party is in the midst of the most mysterious and secretive presidential succession battle since the advent of democracy.
With Filipe Nyusi, Frelimo and Mozambique’s president, due to step down in January 2025, after serving two constitutional terms of office, members in his own party and the rest of politically-minded Mozambicans have been waiting to see who will emerge victorious in the succession battle as Frelimo’s presidential candidate.
However, Nyusi and his inner circle have played the cards very close to their chests, which has led to various theories making the rounds.
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What is the hold-up? The delay is frustrating both for Frelimo members and ordinary Mozambicans, as the party’s presidential candidate is by hook or by crook likely to be Mozambique’s next president, which is likely to inform the country on the direction it might be heading next.
Nyusi’s two terms have left a lot to be desired. The war on the insurgency raging in the northern province of Cabo Delgado, an economic crisis, growing social dissatisfaction, the rise in drug trafficking, corruption and nepotism is what he leaves for his successor. Furthermore, he has plunged Frelimo into such levels of unpopularity but Nyusi and his group have insisted in holding on to power.
The group’s latest gambit, according to last week’s edition of the weekly independent “Savana”, is the possible inclusion of the name of Amélia Muendane, the head of the country’s Tax Authority, in the shortlist to succeed Nyusi, surpassing front-runner Agricultural and Rural Development Minister, Celso Correia, who does not seem to get any endorsement from Frelimo’s old guard.
“Savana” writes that even though Nyusi and his secretary-general, Roque Silva, have circulated an agenda for Frelimo’s Central Committee to be held in Maputo on 5-6 April, which does not include the question of succession, the issue is likely to force the matter and have it discussed.
This is because a section of the party seems to be questioning the delay and the manipulation, and is likely to force that it brought to the table, but they are likely to be met by a determined by a pro-Nyusi group prepared to push back on any attempt to introduce a debate on succession.
Consequently, some observers think that the Central Committee session is likely to be very heated. However, it is worth remembering the current Central Committee is full of Nyusi’s acolytes, who might follow the president’s signals to the detriment of what is most important for the party and country.
So, what is the hold-up for? Some observers believe that Nyusi is desperately seeking to strike an internal immunity deal, fearing that he might be persecuted for the various shenanigans he has been involved in, from the mismanagement of the war to the ill-treatment of civil servants, among others.
Managing to place any of his surrogates into the seat power may not mean the continuity of Nyusism, but merely to ensure that he is not persecuted either by his comrades or by justice. The more skeptical observers believe that betting on Correia would be a mistake, because the latter would not sooner than later “sell” him as he did Guebuza before.
What civil society fears is that Nyusi’s Frelimo is not only manipulating the internal succession as it is prepared to rig the forthcoming general and presidential elections to perpetuate itself in power at any cost, not ruling out the possibility of waging a campaign to eliminate troublesome actors such as activists and journalists to stay in power.
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