An International Relations specialist and lecturer at Mozambique’s public Joaquim Chissano University, Calton Cadeado, has argued that the exist of the Southern African Community Development Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) is likely to weaken the fight against the Islamist insurgency in the northern province of Cabo Delgado.
Alongside the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF), SAMIM forces have been supporting Mozambique’s war against the insurgency. However, its mandate is set to expire next July. Mozambican authorities have claimed that the exit is due to financial difficulties.
Nevertheless, Cadeado believes that the exit will mean one less threat to the insurgents in Cabo Delgado, who already know the weaknesses of the Mozambican state and might see SAMIM’s withdrawal as an “opportunity to show they have an open field” for their actions.
Speaking to the German radio Deustche Welle, Cadeado stressed that given the current situation in Cabo Delgado, and although he knew that SAMIM would not stay forever, he had hoped that the mission would be renewed. “Many more people were hoping that the mission would be renewed, as had happened in other years,” he said.
Comment
Just like the mystery of the succession process, the management of the war against the Islamist insurgency by the executive of President Filipe Nyusi has also been a mystery. Strategically, Nyusi prefers betting on the police to fight the insurgents rather than strengthening the army and the intelligence services, leaving the responsibilities of these two entities in the hands of the Rwandans.
National and international security experts question the options because they beef up the insurgency and weaken the Mozambican state. Others think conspiratorially that this might be a step in some idea of secession of Cabo Delgado from the rest of the country, which might in a way explain the strange management of the succession dossier within the ruling Frelimo party.
Weakening the Defence and Security Forces (FDS) and strengthening the remaining partner following undisclosed agreements, could be seen as paving the way for such a secession. It does not help that Nyusi said that there was lack of unity in the fight against the insurgency, warning that this could leave Mozambicans with a divided nation.
Regional security experts say that contrary to Mozambique’s claims that SAMIM is leaving because of financial difficulties, it was Maputo that asked the regional force to leave, raising suspicions that Nyusi might have been pressed by Rwandan President, Paul Kagame, to kick it out on account of his opposition to SADC’s decision to beef up the SADC Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC), even going to the extent of lobbying the African Union not to support SADC troops deployed to fight armed groups in eastern DRC, claiming their presence would exacerbate the conflict in that region.
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