Mozambican opposition parties met on Monday to draft a joint declaration advocating for the establishment of a national unity government following the 9 October general elections, considered the most fraudulent in the country’s history.
The country’s Centre for Public Integrity (CIP) reports that both independent presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane and the opposition party Renamo appear to have endorsed the idea of uniting the opposition to contest the fraudulent election results, which declared the ruling Frelimo party and its presidential candidate, Daniel Chapo, as victors, and demand democratic accountability.
The National Electoral Commission (CNE) announced last Thursday that Chapo Chapo secured 70.67% of the vote, with Frelimo winning 195 of the 250 seats in the national parliament. These results still await validation by the Constitutional Council, which also serves as the final electoral court during elections
Comment
The opposition’s formation of a national unity government signals a bold attempt to counter Frelimo’s dominance, but its feasibility and success is fraught with challenges.
Historically, Mozambican opposition parties have struggled with ideological differences and competition for influence. Any internal discord or competing agendas could weaken the alliance, potentially causing fractures under Frelimo’s pressure. Could such a big tent be able to prioritise a common goal, maintain a consistent message, and avoid internal disputes?
But would Frelimo, with a firm grip on the country’s political landscape, and influence over state institutions, the judiciary and security forces, agree to such an opposition proposal? Under President Filipe Nyusi, Frelimo has taken an autocratic turn and does not brook any dissent or criticism, meaning that it might resist opposition efforts to form a national unity government, possibly labeling the move as unconstitutional or an affront to electoral legitimacy.
Perhaps the opposition may count on Mozambicans disillusionment with the ruling party and mobilise them to apply substantial pressure on Frelimo, especially if protests and calls for transparency are widespread. Nonetheless, this requires the opposition to remain unified and maintain a clear, compelling narrative that resonates with citizens.
But there is also the risk of public fatigue, as prolonged political conflict can lead to disillusionment and apathy among the populace. So far, it does not seem as if Mozambicans, especially youths, want to see an end to the protests Mondlane has been organising online.
It is also crucial that the protests do no degenerate into violence so that the protesters do not squander whatever good will Mozambicans have for Mondlane and his protestations. Thus the opposition would have to have a stellar organisation and effective public engagement and mobilisation to lead Frelimo to address their grievances.
Furthermore, the opposition should also be strategic to know which players within Frelimo to lobby. Currently, it would seem as if Nyusi and his clique of hardliners are running the show and will not change course. Indeed, Nyusi and the hardliners may choose to maintain the status quo, potentially tightening their grip on power indefinitely.
Mozambique is heading into that murky terrain of uncertainty which might make, break or entrench Frelimo.
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