Last week, the French foreign ministry issued a travel advisory in which it strongly recommended its citizens not to travel to certain cities and through certain roads linking them in the northern Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado “due to the presence of a terrorist and a kidnapping threat.”
The “no go cities” are Mocímboa da Praia, Pemba and Palma. Mocímboa da Praia and Palma have been attacked before by Islamists insurgents. However, the capital Pemba has never been targeted by the insurgency.
This caused President Filipe Nyusi to suggest conspiratorially that “perhaps the message was waiting for a moment… now, whether it is a devised or natural moment, that is something else.”
Not even at the height of the attacks to the town of Palma, in the Afunge peninsula, when the French oil-giant TotalEnergies declared a “force majeure” did the French government issue a travel advisory to its citizens. That it has done it this time following attacks, mainly, on military positions and destruction of property, might be Paris issuing Nyusi and his entire security cluster a certificate of incompetence.
It might also be a resounding “no” to Nyusi’s pleas for the return of TotalEnergies. Thus he runs the risk of not seeing a single cent of Patrick Pouyané’s money. It is true that TotalEnergies Chief Executive Office, Pouyanné said during a presentation of the 2023 results that the company hoped to restart activities in the Ruvuma basin by end of 2024. However, he added a caveat: “What we don’t want to happen is to make people return to Cabo Delgado and force them to leave, which would be very complex.”
During the larger part of 2023, the insurgents were on the back foot, culminating with the death of one of the leaders of the insurgency, Bonomade Machudo Omar, and several of his lieutenants, degrading its operational capabilities. It was then that Mozambique’s police General Commander Bernardino Rafael announced triumphantly that the insurgency had been reduced to 30 percent of its operational capabilities, but the latest developments show that the insurgency has grown from strength to strength.
It is clear that there is a new leadership which seems to be more pragmatic. If in the past the insurgents unconscionably murdered hapless civilians, the current iteration seems to have changed its strategy. Rather than barbarously killing civilians, they charge them a compulsory tax (Jizya in Arabic) for safe passage, and in some villages, they live side by side with the population, capturing hearts and minds.
Meanwhile, the Mozambican forces have been suffering heavy defeats, the latest being the death of about 25 soldiers in the administrative post of Mucojo and the capturing of an assortment of weapons and munitions.
Also, the insurgents have expanded their area of operations, raiding the southern regions of Cabo Delgado, especially Chiúre and Mecufi, where they destroyed public and private property.
This has led to further internal displacement, with the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) estimating that over 800 people in just five days fled from their areas of origin to the capital, Pemba.
Questions are being asked regarding the insurgency. Why despite the presence of Rwandan forces, the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM), the Mozambican Defence and Security Forces (FDS, comprising the army, police and secret services, with the of the United States and European Union – training and non-lethal logistics -, the insurgency does not seem to go away?
Clearly, the FDS are the weakest link. As stated by a lifelong supporter of the ruling Frelimo party, “there are no bad soldiers but bad generals.” From the beginning, the police was put at the forefront of the fight against the insurgency to the exclusion of other forces, and with Rafael make public appearances discussing issues of a military nature – security experts are asking how come he is still the General Commander, to which they reply that blood runs thicker than water, as he is of the same ethnic group as Nyusi.
Little wonder the ruling group has moved from blunder to blunder. Nyusi either forgot or is ignorant of the factoid that “countries do not have friends, they have interests.” Regardless, he should wake up to the fact that Paris will henceforth deal with the next sovereign.
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