Judging by partial results in the presidential, parliamentary and provincial elections held nationwide on 9 October, the main opposition party, Renamo, has been dealt a sound beating at the ballot box.
Parallel counting places Renamo and its leader, Ossufo Momade, in a distant third place at best, trailing behind independent candidate Venâncio Mondlane and the PODEMOS party (Optimistic Party for the Development of Mozambique), which backs Mondlane’s candidacy – Mondlane is a former Renamo dissident.
Comment
It is still early days but even in their wildest dreams, the ruling Frelimo members and sympathizers could not have envisaged that voters would render their worst political enemy useless.
Since the signing of the Rome Peace Agreement in 1992, Frelimo has consistently worked to undermine Renamo, with limited success. This effort was particularly challenging while Renamo’s late leader, Afonso Dhlakama, was still alive.”
Eventually Renamo was done in by voters who made their displeasure known: Ossufo Momade, hitherto the leader of the opposition, was so soundly rejected perhaps because of the generalised perception that he sold out to Nyusi and Frelimo. There is the perception that he is not fully committed to challenging Frelimo’s rule, merely content with the title of leader of the opposition, which comes with state perks and benefits.
He was accused of capitulating to President Filipe Nyusi when signing the 2019 Peace and Reconciliation Agreement which put an end to a low intensity war in central Mozambique, leading to the effective demobilisation of Renamo’s military wing, which some Renamo supporters felt did not secure enough guarantees for the party’s political interests.
Furthermore, it did not help that he never articulated a vision to challenge Frelimo’s stronghold on power, concerned only with holding on to power just for the sake of it and advancing his interests.
But the last straw seems to have been how he managed Mondlane’s expulsion from Renamo, which underscored concerns about Momade’s leadership style, with critics accusing him of sidelining dissenting voices rather than fostering unity within the party.
So, voters, especially in Mozambican urban settings, have shown Momade and Renamo what they thought about them by voting strongly for somebody else and a different party. Thus, taking the tally from urban settings, Renamo will lose its status as the main opposition party for the first time since the first multiparty election in 1994 – the only caveat is that results from rural Mozambique where historically support for Renamo has been strong are still unknown.
Nevertheless, Ossufo must bear the blame for leading Renamo to such a poor performance. He began campaigning a week late and ran an uninspired, lacklustre campaign lacking imagination and excitement. Ironically, for a candidate who brandished brooms during campaigning might be swept out into the political wilderness.
Whether he will resign remains unknown. If he were to resign, it would be unprecedented. Dhlakama suffered five defeats at the hands of two Frelimo candidates but never once considered stepping down to allow a better candidate to take control of the party. However, Dhlakama was a far more formidable politician than Momade and could manage to keep Renamo united and cohesive.
Regardless, Momade’s fate will likely be decided soon, especially if Renamo fails to clinch second place, as he will lose all the state resources afforded to him by the fact of being the leader of the second most-voted party in parliament, which has allowed him to create patron-client networks within the party.
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