Mozambicans prepare to cast their ballots to choose a new president, members of national and provincial assemblies, on Wednesday, the credibility of the electoral process is already in question.
Organisations such as the Centre for Public Integrity (CIP) reported that the ruling Frelimo party, in collaboration with the Technical Secretariat for Electoral Administration (STAE), has taken over the training of polling station staff (known as MMVs).
According to CIP, the polling staff chairs (returning officers) have been “encouraged to bring victory to Frelimo.”
CIP adds that the civil society platform for electoral observation, Mais Integridade, has accused the Zambezia Provincial Elections Commission (CPE) of “failing to issue credentials for its electoral observers within the legal deadlines” – CPE had issued only 45 out of 279 credential applications as of Monday.
In some provinces, notably Gaza and Inhambane, STAE registered 878,868 voters that the National Statistics Institute (INE) says cannot exist. That means 5% of total voters are fake, meaning that Gaza gains six extra seats in Parliament and Inhambane one extra seat.
Furthermore, the National Election Commission (CNE) decided on using opaque ballot boxes with a wider slot, which can allow the insertion of several ballots folded together, thus encouraging ballot stuffing. This violates the new electoral law which requires transparent boxes with a smaller slot allowing for one single ballot paper per voter.
The voter registration process was riddled with irregularities, with a disproportionate number of brigades being deployed in areas that have historically supported Frelimo. Meanwhile, much larger provinces, where opposition parties have stronger support, received far fewer brigades, creating an imbalance that raises concerns about fairness and transparency in the election process..
Comment
Observers have been quick to point out that the conduct of the electoral process fulfills some of the criteria set down in Brian Klass’ “How to Rig an Election”, which argues that modern autocrats no longer avoid elections but instead manipulate them to maintain power.
Indeed, thanks to President Filipe Nyusi’s authoritarian streak, Frelimo has gradually turned Mozambique into an autocracy. This became clear in the 2023 municipal elections in which the opposition was robbed of a clear victory in Maputo City, Matola, Nampula, among others – this was aided and abetted by the Constitutional Council, which during elections doubles up as an electoral court of last resort.
The chief reason observers believe the country is experiencing an autocratic shift is the development of significant oil and gas projects in the northern Cabo Delgado province. These projects are expected to provide Mozambique with enough revenue to finance its own budget for the first time, potentially altering the political landscape and increasing Frelimo’s control over Mozambican society and national resources.
As such, the involvement of partisan individuals in key electoral positions raises red flags about the fairness of the election. The presence of returning officers—who play a critical role in tallying and reporting results—who are reportedly affiliated with Frelimo, exacerbates fears that the vote may be skewed in favor of the ruling party.
Furthermore, STAE has retained some of the people convicted of election offences in 2023’s municipal elections have been hired as polling staff, sending the message that anyone rigging for the ruling party is to be rewarded.
This alleged manipulation has come to symbolize a deeper structural issue in Mozambique’s democratic framework. Over the years, Mozambique’s opposition parties have struggled to compete on a level playing field, often pointing to Frelimo’s grip on state institutions as an obstacle to free and fair elections.
Also, the role of the country’s electoral bodies has been central in the ongoing controversy. Rather than acting as impartial guardians of the democratic process, many accuse them of siding with Frelimo.
Meanwhile, some observers believe that if the playing field was level, there was a likelihood that the elections would be very competitive, leading to a run-off election due to reasons of Frelimo’s own doing. For example, the government has managed the implementation of the Single Wage Table (TSU) poorly, resulting in unhappy public servants who felt short-changed, notably doctors, health professionals, teachers, judges, and the police – the TSU is a single payroll system out of 108 different wage tables and a whole range of supplements and subsidies.
Furthermore, government did not earn points in the subsequent negotiations, especially with doctors and health professionals, who were twice forced to wage strikes. As such, these elections coincide with growing frustration among such segments of Mozambique’s workforce – these groups have been vocal about their dissatisfaction with poor working conditions and persistently low wages.
These economic grievances intersect with political disillusionment, creating a volatile environment in which dissatisfaction with the ruling party could boil over.
With the credibility of the electoral process in question and rising public frustration, Mozambique’s election is shaping up to be a critical test of its democratic institutions. If rigging proves true, the country could face a prolonged period of political instability, as opposition parties and civil society challenge the legitimacy of the results.
In the coming days, Mozambique’s political future may depend not only on the election results but also on its leaders’ capacity to tackle the deeper issues of governance, fairness, and economic justice that have led the country to this pivotal moment. Addressing these systemic challenges will be crucial for ensuring long-term stability and public trust in the democratic process.
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