The sixth Mozambican municipal elections are likely to change the geography of political power in the municipalities of the Great Maputo (Maputo, Matola and Marracuene), with Renamo, the main opposition party, well-placed to complete a clean sweep.
Voting started at 7 am and went smoothly in most of the polling stations visited by Mozambique Insights in Maputo. The polling stations closed at 6 pm, whereby the polling staff decided to take a short break before counting started.
Unfortunately, in some cases the polling staff were not thoroughly prepared to run the process pragmatically to the complete satisfaction of the party delegates and observers. As such, the counting process delayed about two hours.
After more than 56 percent of the vote had been counted, it became clear who the choice of Maputo voters was: Renamo. Frelimo and MDM came second and third respectively.
The pattern also held in the suburbs of Maputo. Unfortunately, in the KaMavota district, most populous constituency in Maputo, the lights went out in what Renamo claimed it was an attempt by Frelimo to use the night for ballot stuffing. Luckily, about two hours later the lights came back, which enabled the polling staff to finish counting.
In one polling station,s in Ka’Mavota, despite the power cuts and huge police presence, the youth milled around in the street listening to Azagaia music while waiting to check the result sheets – rapper Azagaia passed away on 9 March 2023 and his songs have been used as clarion call by the youth..
President Filipe Nyusi was the first Mozambican to vote. After casting his vote, he called on the citizenry to turn up to vote and wait for the results in their homes.
In the 2018 municipal elections, the ruling Frelimo party won in 44 out 53 municipalities, with Renamo winning in eight and MDM (Mozambique’s Democratic Movement) being victorious in one. The current municipal elections were held in 65 municipalities.
Comment
At the close of this edition, Renamo had a commanding lead in Maputo, Matola, Nampula and Quelimane, with MDM leading in Beira. This would drive a sword into Frelimo’s strategy of attacking the opposition strongholds and keeping its big municipalities, namely Maputo and Matola.
As such, should Renamo’s victory be confirmed in Matola, Nampula and Quelimane, this will be a sign that Frelimo is going through a profound crisis.
All these elements show that Nyusi has led an extremely divided and ill-prepared party into a crucial election for Frelimo, considering that the main voters are millennials (born in the early 2000s), far from the stigma of the war, of a warmongering and bloodthirsty Renamo, but very familiar with Frelimo’s successive scandals and the insipid nature of its governance, and social unrest (kidnappings, murders, robberies, road accidents, informal economy).
This process has all the ingredients of a deep internal crisis within Frelimo. For example, former presidents Armando Guebuza did not campaign, and Joaquim Chissano warned “don’t despise small candidates”, drawing attention to the comrades triumphalism.
Another internal issue is the figure and character of Celso Correia, head of the Central Brigade to assist Nampula province, who is referred to as Nyusi’s dauphin or successor, and widely used by Nyusi to control the party and manipulate its bodies. If Celso wins Nampula, he will once again be seen as Nyusi’s natural successor, extending the crisis until this internal imbroglio is definitively resolved.
Renamo didn’t win the elections, Frelimo lost them. In his second term, Nyusi has opted for a rather pernicious political incongruity: manipulation of Frelimo’s bodies; strategic mutism (he doesn’t speak to the national press); he passes messages directly or via the Secretary General; he is dodgy on the succession process giving the impression that he is manipulating it; the Castigo Langa case; the TSU, the strikes by doctors, health professionals; the teachers’ strike; the manipulation of the electoral law, and the unclear process of internal elections for the local councils and above all, the unpolished way in which he has treated all these processes with authoritarianism and very little political tact.
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