Despite calls for negotiations with the insurgency in the northern Mozambican province of Cabo Delgado there has not been a dialogue process which seeks to bring together the government, the insurgents and other critical stakeholders, according to a report by the Peacemaking Advisory Group (PAG).

Made public last Friday, the report, dated February 2023, says that there is a “readiness for peace dialogue across all sectors of society, both state and non-state.”

The state stakeholder which indicated readiness to negotiate is the provincial government, which is also backed by SAMIM, the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique.

Meanwhile, all stakeholders consulted by PAG “expressed a significant trust deficit as a barrier to dialogue and peace.”

Furthermore, there is the issue of a “lack of coordination and communication between relevant parties, and complex questions around amnesty and the reintegration of former fighters,” reads the report.

The report suggests that a matter to be addressed is the absence of “a government-convened dialogue process which seeks to bring together representatives” of the insurgency and the government to explore the potential for conflict transformation.

Comment

The late Anglican Archbishop Desmond Tutu is quoted as saying that “if you want peace, you don’t talk to your friends. You talk to your enemies.” So, five years since the beginning of the insurgency, there is yet to be an open channel between government and the insurgents, and it is not clear whether there is any existing back channel open.

Interestingly, the state body ready to negotiate is the provincial and not the central government. It is true that the central government has in the past extended an olive branch to the insurgents in the way of amnesty, but that has only convinced foot soldiers to abandon the forests – it I thought that the insurgents who gave themselves up did so on account of hunger.

Also, the report does not say what the position of the Rwandans is – a contingent of military and police personnel is deployed in Cabo Delgado and is credited in helping stabilise the province as they successfully pushed back the insurgency.

Is important to see what Kigali has to say on the issue, as well what would the Makonde connection consider as win in the negotiations, as Nyusi controls every issue and person he puts in power. Thus, the provincial governor, Valigy Tauabo, wouldn’t do anything without the say-so of the President, as he would be sacked.

Observers say that the Makonde would wish for Cabo Delgado to be more autonomous from Maputo, as that would give them immunity over the things done from 2015 to date.

But if Frelimo refused this approach, what would be the next move? Remember, that basically the leadership of the security cluster is controlled by the Makonde ethnic group.

Perhaps, buoyed by the success in the frontline, the central government would rather the insurgency was fought to the last man rather than give it a seat at the table.

This posture by Mozambique has a historical precedent – something similar happened with the former rebel movement Renamo. Government initially refused to negotiate until the last hour, when Renamo guerrillas where close to the doors of Maputo, the capital city.

Indeed, in 1984, the then Frelimo government sat at the table with Renamo, in Pretoria, South Africa, and offered Renamo inclusion in the structures of the army, public administration, but fighting went on for eight more years.

So, it would be no surprise if the current government is not keen in negotiating with the insurgency.

Consequently, any peace solution must have a buy-out from Frelimo bodies in order to make it a national agenda, otherwise that might be a headache for the next president.

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