In Brazil, Luis Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva ended his two terms as president, anointing a successor in Dilma Rousseff. She was impeached and Lula was sent to jail on trumped up charges. As he languished in prison, his myth grew. Eventually, Lula was cleared of all charges and ran again, defeating the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in a tight election.
Former President Armando Guebuza served his two terms of office, attempted to hand on to power but was forced to hand over the reins to his successor, Filipe Nyusi.
Then the “hidden debt” scandal broke and Guebuza was initially singled out as the main culprit. Had one of his sons, Armando Ndambi Guebuza, imprisoned and sentenced to 12 years of imprisonment. It seemed as if he had reached his political and public nadir. Guebuza Sr. appeared in court as a witness.
But as Nyusi’s star wanes, Guebuza’s is rising again. In some circles (not a few), there is the belief and certainty that Nyusi not only messed things up but that he is incapable of running the country much like Brazil’s Bolsonaro.
Guebuza has only benefitted, especially in social media where there are calls for him to run again. Twice in public events, Guebuza has been met with acclaim and applause.
In economic, political and security circles, Guebuza is remembered with some nostalgy, and any probable return would not be a surprise, and would be seen as a natural and opportune path to correcting what his successor messed up, that is, from economy to security, from party unity to infrastructure, etc. At this stage, Nyusi is the most unpopular of the presidents of Mozambique and of Frelimo.
In many circles, it is a fact that Guebuza could be the only person with the political and ideological conditions to reunify, strengthen, re-energise and lead the party after hurricane Nyusi. Will he take the path taken by Lula?
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