“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose (the more things change, the more they remain the same)” says the French adage to describe the immutability of human nature and institutions.
Mozambique’s sixth municipal elections seem to have delivered more of the same: almost the same political actors; the same electoral supervisory model; the same groups which profit out of election logistics, among others.
However, the adage was tested, and it did not hold in one aspect: the electorate in some crucial municipalities seem to have changed. Young voters turned out in large numbers and made the difference, which enabled the opposition to ride the wave of mentality changes that characterised the elections.
Within the ruling Frelimo party there are reports of discontentment, political confusion and shame. Still the rank-and-file member await clear instructions from the leadership.
Frelimo insiders tell Mozambique Insights that going into this cycle of municipal elections, the leadership had projected a 100 percent win target – remember this is the same group that managed to have the country and Frelimo’s President Filipe Nyusi elected for a second term at the helm of the party with a 100 percent of the vote at the September 2022 congress, prompting former President Joaquim Chissano to say tongue and cheek that even he could not achieve such a feat.
A 100 percent win meant that the party would have to win all the municipalities in opposition hands in a year when everything could only go wrong for the ruling party. However, the Nyusi, Frelimo’s Secretary-General Roque Silva and the head of the party’s Electoral Office and wanna-be president, Agriculture and Rural Development minister, Celso Correia, forgot to protect the flanks and the party ended-up losing Maputo, Matola, Matola-Rio and Marracuene, although Chissano had warned the party to not “underestimate the small actors.”
Thus, Nyusi, Silva and Correia became the first president, secretary-general and head of the party’s electoral office to lose Maputo, the crown jewel of them all, to the opposition. But the group worked to revert this, instructing the electoral management bodies, notably the Technical Secretariat for Electoral Administration (STAE), to carry out all sorts of nefarious activities to hand Frelimo a win.
For the first time, Frelimo lost the support of key constituencies, namely the youth and its own members and sympathisers who had seen Nyusi and his government mismanage the country and party and turned their back on him.
Political scientists reckon that there are four criteria that lead to loss of legitimacy for a president or party, namely breaking or abusing the law; failing to deliver on campaign promises, being seen as incompetent or ineffective and losing support of key constituencies.
The use of District STAE to blatantly rig the elections in favour of Frelimo is clearly abusing the law. Perhaps Nyusi, Silva and Correia thought that the “winning” at all costs would send two messages, both to the party and voters.
The message for Frelimo would be that they were the first to deliver it all the municipalities, and they would brook no criticism that they had performed badly. Furthermore, the “victory” would serve to enthrone them as the de facto front-runners in the succession process: Nyusi would be able to anoint his dauphin without little or no opposition; Roque’s head would not roll; and Correia would likely have his path to the presidency cleared of all obstacles.
As for the voters, the message would be that regardless of how they voted, their will would never be accepted. It would be up to the voters whether they turned out or not, but this New Frelimo would never accept any result that was not an outright victory for it. After all, winning in 64 of 65 municipalities shows who is popular, no?
Perhaps the trio had not expected the internal backlash. Roque is quoted to have said that all those who were opposing the victory were “opposition comrades.” But after a Political Commission meeting on Monday evening, he was made to eat humble pie and tell Mozambicans that Frelimo trusted the electoral management bodies to deal with the cases of irregularities.
However, Silva swore that Frelimo had won fairly in the 64 municipalities. Of course, this does not dovetail with the reality. Furthermore, in some cases, district courts have annulled the results and ordered the holding of new elections.
As pressure grows inside Frelimo for the holding of an urgent and extraordinary Central Committee meeting, it is likely that Silva’s head might roll as he became the face of a dysfunctional party.
It is still not clear how the party will react to Correia, but a faction did not like to see him celebrate “wins” in Nampula as if they were his own rather than the collective, So, they are likely to deal with him sooner rather than later, especially for causing shame to the party and for introducing a strategy that led to the losing of Maputo and Matola, and not least for exposing Frelimo to ridicule.
Regardless, the die is already cast. The country will go through a period of uncertainty until all matters have been dealt with by the Constitutional Court, who will eventually declare the winners.
The uncertainty will likely contribute to Nyusi and Frelimo’s loss of legitimacy as he heads towards the final stretch of his ineffective presidency.
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