The Political Commission of Mozambique’s ruling Frelimo party has begun circulating the agenda for its Central Committee meeting, which will be held in Maputo on 5-6 April.
However, absent from the agenda is the question of succession leaving room for speculation. Apart from the usual AOB (Any Other Business), neither Frelimo members nor Mozambicans have been given an inkling on when the question will finally be tackled head on.
Comment
Although Frelimo presidential hopefuls have been campaigning discreetly, it would seem Frelimo is standing its ground and apparently has decided to skip the succession debate – constitutionally, President Filipe Nyusi is to step down in January 2025 as he ends the second of his two terms of office.
The omission of the succession issue has set the rumour mill running, with two emerging theories: (a) Nyusi has resumed his agenda for a third term in office, which is justified by his “structured distraction” to the point of never talking publicly of the succession and now its omission from the Central Committee agenda, where it was supposed to be discussed; and (b) the elections are going to be postponed, which takes into account Nyusi’s arrogant and defiant tone last week and veiled threat that “we could lose the homeland”.
If any one of the two theories are valid, what would that mean for the country?
Frelimo’s stronghold on the country and economy is such that any such notion could lead to shock waves with real life consequences for Mozambicans, for example, prices skyrocketing, ever-growing public dissatisfaction (teachers, doctors, nurses, defence and security, etc.), who on several occasions have expressed their exhaustion at the apparent misrule of Nyusi’s government.
This could be understood as a dangerous continuation of the disorganisation of the state, an increase in nepotism, the strengthening of the raid on public tenders and a drastic reduction in institutional efficiency, in the midst of an ongoing war on terrorism in the northern Cabo Delgado province, which occasionally threatens to spill over into neighbouring Nampula.
At party level, there are many versions which try to explain Nyusi’s insistence not to kickstart the succession debate and what could lie behind his supposed strength to bend the party to his clearly personal interests and of those groups that support him, to the detriment of the party, the state and the country.
For two years an exhausted and weak Frelimo has been patiently waiting for the Nyusi’s term of office to be but a bad and sad and distant memory. The most important question is what kind of country Mozambique will be after this long and complex political and governmental period with Nyusi at the helm of the country, which analysts of all colours are calling the “worst president of all time”.
@2024, Mozambique Insights. All Rights Reserved
