Cabo Delgado: the networks of an insurgency
António Bashir, the Police Commissioner in the northern Mozambican province of Nampula, has said that the insurgents are still recruiting heavily in the province.
Speaking at the Nampula Development Observatory, a consultative and participatory forum between government and national and international partners for the promotion of sustainable social and economic development, Bashir said that between 40 to 50 youths from Nampula are detained daily in Cabo Delgado as they allegedly try to join the ranks of the insurgents.
“We are concerned, and today, for example, I received the message that 49 young people have been found on the islands of Cabo Delgado, claiming that they are going to fish”, said Bashir, asking whether the justification was believable.
“When it seems that everything is calm, there are still people grooming young people to join terrorist groups in Cabo Delgado. Terrorism continues and we must redouble our security system,” he added.
Comment
Security experts frown upon what they call police’s populist approach that systematically exposes people, situations and security processes in the media, when the rule of thumb is to be thorough with the processes in order to achieve greater gains. That is to say that there is a need to ensure no stone is left unturned in order to gather intelligence of the insurgents’ operations.
In fact, the terrorists logistical process is quite strong both in Cabo Delgado and Nampula. For example, in March 2020, six members of the insurgency logistics chain were arrested in Mocímboa da Praia and the police top brass went to the media to gloat about the arrests.
What happened was that the insurgents went silent and proceeded to overrun Mocímboa da Praia, taking over control of the town and port for about a year.
For a strange reason, the police and its general commander are wont to run to the media to present results that fall outside their purview, like intelligence-gathering and waging war, perhaps to look for publicity. But this exposes the Defence and Security Forces (FDS)’ strategy and how they operate. Police General Commander Bernardino Rafael has received pointed criticism for his penchant for populist television appearances.
Thus, the information from the Nampula Provincial Police Commissioner could serve to unwittingly derail any ongoing investigation aimed at disrupting the insurgency recruitment process – information of operational nature is dealt with within a specific forum for better results.
Perhaps this is the reason why some international security experts have in the past suggested that owing to its duration, dynamism and insurgents’ initiative, it is plausible to think of an internal political and military component supporting the insurgency.
One should look at 2020 attacks to Mocímboa da Praia, Quissanga and Muidumbe and the unsuccessful attempt by the Russian-based mercenary Wagner Group to defeat the insurgency, to see the signs of coordination with the FDS.
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